US Treasury Bitcoin Buy Odds Hit 21% on Kalshi but Few Are Betting

A Kalshi contract betting that the U.S. Treasury will buy bitcoin before 2028 touched 21%, but only a sliver of money is backing that number. Odds on Kalshi had risen past 20% that the U.S. Treasury will buy bitcoin next year. The fine print, however, was narrower and it bears mentioning that the market resolves only on a Treasury announcement of a completed bitcoin purchase for a government-held reserve. Speeches, studies and executive orders do not count. The 21% figure belongs to the contract that runs until Jan. 1, 2028. The shorter contract, covering the rest of 2026, showed just 2% in the same screenshot. So the market is not saying Washington is about to start buying but will purchase sometime in 2027 is possible.

First reported by Bitcoin.com News. This page is a short excerpt; the full text is theirs.